Mobile Vs. Fixed Broadband
I got some interesting feedback from an OpEd I wrote for the San Jose Mercury News called "Mobile Technology, not broadband, is the way to connect America." From my mobile addict friends I got a lot of verbal hi-5s and no small number of text messages. From others, with a more nuanced or balanced view of mobile, I got some great pushback. Some, for example, pointed out that pricing for mobile (if you include phone and data plans) is still higher than fixed broadband. Others argued the screen sizes and capabilities of mobile devices are not quite there yet. Another person expressed displeasure that my mobile rant was jeopardizing the immediate rollout of other broadband options to connect the unconnected. One respondent even went as far as to suggest "the iPhone will never replace the laptop".
Never say never...and while there are some clear challenges for mobile over the short term. Over the long run it seems the best possible option.
First, most people are already using and used to mobile technologies. By 2010 mobile phone penetration will have reached 90% of the global population. In the U.S. well over 90% of the population have cell phones...including immigrants and the poor. Rather than invest in fixed broadband networks connected to desktops and laptops (that are already on their way out if favor of smaller and lighter mobile devices), why not invest more in technologies that most people are already using? And does it really make sense to saddle the poor and underserved with yesterday's technologies and tools while the more affluent adopters move on?
Second, the next generation of handheld mobile devices will likely include accurate voice activation and projection capabilities. The former is a game changer in and of itself, but imaging the capability of projecting a keyboard and large sized screen via your mobile device onto any surface...goodbye PC!
Yes price points need to come down, bandwidth issues need to be resolved, and (depending on the country) regulatory issues need to be dealt with. Next generation 4G and LTE networks will get rolled out over the next couple of years with broadband speeds between 100 Mbps and 1 Gbps. That means you will be able to download HD movies and do high quality live streaming of video, among other things. Sure Fiber To The Home will provide even better bandwidth, but people will DEMAND to access broadband on the go...and networks and capacity will be built out accordingly.
In the meantime a kind of "Smart Broadband" bridging strategy - which recommends a menu of broadband options for different users with different pricing - is a sensible approach. But if you seriously think the bulk of stimulus investments in broadband should go toward fixed, I would humbly suggest you aren't thinking long term or reading the writing on the wireless wall!
Never say never...and while there are some clear challenges for mobile over the short term. Over the long run it seems the best possible option.
First, most people are already using and used to mobile technologies. By 2010 mobile phone penetration will have reached 90% of the global population. In the U.S. well over 90% of the population have cell phones...including immigrants and the poor. Rather than invest in fixed broadband networks connected to desktops and laptops (that are already on their way out if favor of smaller and lighter mobile devices), why not invest more in technologies that most people are already using? And does it really make sense to saddle the poor and underserved with yesterday's technologies and tools while the more affluent adopters move on?
Second, the next generation of handheld mobile devices will likely include accurate voice activation and projection capabilities. The former is a game changer in and of itself, but imaging the capability of projecting a keyboard and large sized screen via your mobile device onto any surface...goodbye PC!
Yes price points need to come down, bandwidth issues need to be resolved, and (depending on the country) regulatory issues need to be dealt with. Next generation 4G and LTE networks will get rolled out over the next couple of years with broadband speeds between 100 Mbps and 1 Gbps. That means you will be able to download HD movies and do high quality live streaming of video, among other things. Sure Fiber To The Home will provide even better bandwidth, but people will DEMAND to access broadband on the go...and networks and capacity will be built out accordingly.
In the meantime a kind of "Smart Broadband" bridging strategy - which recommends a menu of broadband options for different users with different pricing - is a sensible approach. But if you seriously think the bulk of stimulus investments in broadband should go toward fixed, I would humbly suggest you aren't thinking long term or reading the writing on the wireless wall!
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